AST SpaceMobile
The only public company trying to do direct-to-phone from space with an unmodified 5G handset. Five BlueBird satellites are in orbit, five more launch through fall, and the AT&T/Verizon service commercialization is the catalyst nobody's fully priced. If it works, ASTS is a $50B company. If it doesn't, it's a $2B company. There is no middle.
AST SpaceMobile is a binary outcome. The pitch: put big-aperture satellites in LEO that talk to unmodified cell phones on the ground, then license spectrum and signal to the mobile carriers already paying you (AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone). BlueBird 1 through 5 are operational. Block 2 (six more satellites) launches this fall on Falcon 9 and Neutron.
The stock moves on three things: (1) launch cadence and how many satellites end up healthy on-orbit, (2) whether AT&T and Verizon move from tech tests to paid commercial service by Q1 2027, and (3) any FCC or ITU spectrum ruling that changes the operating footprint.
Watch: this fall's launches. If they hit cadence, the story compounds. If they slip, the balance sheet gets a lot more interesting.