SpaceX priced its IPO Wednesday at $135 a share, a $1.75 trillion valuation. It opened Thursday at $168 before settling lower. The biggest IPO in history happened this week, and the whole space sector is repricing in real time.
First, the float is tiny. SpaceX sold roughly 4% of the company at IPO, which is why the stock ripped on day one and has been volatile since. Real price discovery is still months away. Anyone telling you a specific market cap is fair value right now is guessing.
Investors are pricing SpaceX as a launch company. The S-1 reads like a telecom.
- Sean, on the IPO read
Second, the Starlink ARPU number in the filing is the real story. It's been quietly compounding since 2023, and that one line item is what justifies the trillion-dollar-plus valuation more than any rocket. SpaceX is a telecom. Third, the public space adjacents (Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs) all rallied this week on the assumption that float-starved capital will rotate into the next-tier names. We think that read is half right.